TMC is Going to Win Madarihat, the Possible Result of the By-Election is TMC 6, BJP 0! Why?
West Bengal’s upcoming bypolls have captured attention, with six constituencies set for elections across five districts. Among them, Madarihat and Sitai have emerged as key battlegrounds, each carrying unique political implications. Following Trinamool Congress’s (TMC) sweeping victory in the recent Lok Sabha elections and subsequent civil unrest around state incidents, these bypolls hold significance for both TMC and BJP to understand the pulse of the people from North to South Bengal. While Sitai remains a BJP stronghold, Madarihat holds a crucial position in TMC’s pursuit of expanding its influence.
Madarihat: A Major Test for Trinamool
Madarihat has remained outside TMC’s grasp since the party’s establishment in power in West Bengal. Even after 13 years of TMC’s governance, this North Bengal constituency has favored BJP, largely owing to its voter demographics and political history. From 1969 to 2011, Madarihat was dominated by the Left ally RSP. However, post the regime shift, this tea-garden-rich area became a BJP stronghold. The by-election in Madarihat is necessitated by former MLA Manoj Tigga’s election as an MP. Yet, BJP’s lead in Madarihat has shown signs of waning over the last few years, indicating an opportunity for TMC.
In the 2021 Assembly elections, BJP led by a margin of 29,885 votes over TMC in Madarihat. However, by the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, this lead had shrunk to 11,063 votes—a decline of 18,822 votes within three years. This narrowing gap is attributed to internal rifts within BJP, particularly the differences between former MP John Barla and current MP Manoj Tigga. Notably, Barla’s meeting with TMC leaders and his visible presence with TMC’s candidate fueled intrigue among political circles and added another layer of complexity to the Madarihat bypoll.
Key Factors in Madarihat’s Election Dynamics
Madarihat’s voter base consists predominantly of 42% tribal, 37% Gorkha, and 20% tea-garden laborer communities. With 25 tea gardens, of which four remain closed, the grievances of unemployed tea workers have become a central issue. The closed tea gardens symbolize one of the major voting issues in Madarihat, further adding to TMC’s hope for making inroads in this constituency.
Sitai: BJP’s Stronghold Faces New Political Landscape
While Madarihat’s bypoll creates intense political competition, Sitai remains another crucial constituency under focus. Situated in Cooch Behar district, Sitai is a BJP bastion that has swung between Forward Bloc and Congress dominance before 2016, when it came under TMC’s “flower” symbol. The current by-election in Sitai is necessitated by MLA Jagadish Burman Basunia’s election as an MP. In 2021, TMC led in Sitai with a margin of 10,112 votes, which expanded to 28,377 votes by the 2024 Lok Sabha election, indicating TMC’s growing foothold in the region.
TMC has nominated Sangeeta Roy, wife of Jagadish Basunia, as their candidate. Her nomination stirred controversy, with accusations of submitting false certificates. Although a case was filed in the High Court, the court decided not to interfere in the matter. Amid these legal questions, the bypoll in Sitai remains relatively calm, with BJP aiming to maintain its ground and TMC attempting to widen its influence.
Impact and Expectations from the Bypolls
The bypoll results in Madarihat and Sitai are set to impact not just West Bengal but also the broader national political landscape. A TMC victory in Madarihat would signify a breakthrough in a traditionally BJP-dominated region, while Sitai would serve as an indicator of TMC’s sustained strength in the face of BJP’s efforts to consolidate its presence.
The West Bengal bypolls will therefore serve as a barometer of public sentiment, offering insights into voter perspectives and possible shifts in political leanings across Bengal’s diverse regions.