BJP, Shinde-led Shiv Sena, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP alliance set to secure 150-170 seats; Congress-led MVA trails with 110-130 seats, as per exit poll predictions.
Mumbai: The BJP-led Mahayuti alliance is poised to reclaim power in Maharashtra, according to the latest exit polls for the 2024 Assembly elections. The alliance, comprising BJP, Shiv Sena (led by Eknath Shinde), and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) faction led by Ajit Pawar, is projected to win 150 to 170 seats in the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly.
On the other hand, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which includes Congress, Shiv Sena (led by Uddhav Thackeray), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP, is estimated to secure 110 to 130 seats. Other smaller parties and independents are expected to grab 8 to 10 seats, according to the exit poll findings.
Key Numbers from Exit Polls
To secure a majority in the Maharashtra Assembly, a party or coalition needs at least 145 seats. The BJP-led Mahayuti alliance appears well-positioned to cross this threshold, commanding over 48% of the projected vote share. Meanwhile, the Congress-led MVA alliance is likely to garner approximately 42% of the vote share, leaving the remaining 10% with other parties and independents.
Predicted Seat Distribution by MATRIZE Exit Poll:
| Alliance/Party | Projected Seats |
|---|---|
| Mahayuti (BJP+) | 150-170 |
| – BJP | 89-101 |
| – Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) | 37-45 |
| – NCP (Ajit Pawar faction) | 17-26 |
| Maha Vikas Aghadi (Congress+) | 110-130 |
| Others | 8-10 |
Insights from Other Exit Polls
The Chanakya Strategies exit poll also indicates a strong performance for the Mahayuti alliance, predicting 152-160 seats with a 47% vote share. The MVA, on the other hand, may secure 130-138 seats with 42% of the votes, while independents and smaller parties could win 6-8 seats.
Other poll agencies, including Poll Diary and PMARQ, largely align with this trend, with variations in seat estimates. The aggregated “Poll of Polls” suggests the Mahayuti alliance will secure around 152 seats, the MVA 126 seats, and others approximately 10 seats.
Comprehensive Exit Poll Projections
| Agency | Mahayuti (BJP+) | MVA (Congress+) | Others |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATRIZE | 150-170 | 110-130 | 8-10 |
| Chanakya | 152-160 | 130-138 | 6-8 |
| Poll Diary | 122-186 | 69-121 | 12-29 |
| PMARQ | 137-157 | 126-146 | 2-8 |
| Poll of Polls | 152 | 126 | 10 |
What Lies Ahead
The final outcome, expected after the results are declared, will determine whether the BJP-led alliance can achieve a decisive victory or if the MVA can narrow the gap. Maharashtra’s political landscape is closely watched, with these exit poll results hinting at a strong comeback for the BJP and its allies.