2026 Bhabanipur Clash: Why Suvendu Adhikari is Targeting Mamata’s Turf
West Bengal’s Leader of Opposition, Suvendu Adhikari, has begun strategizing for the 2026 Assembly elections, anticipating a direct face-off against Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee in her stronghold, Bhabanipur. Sources confirm Adhikari held closed-door meetings with BJP leaders from the constituency on Tuesday, signaling his intent to avenge Trinamool Congress’ (TMC) dominance in the seat. This comes after Mamata lost to Adhikari in Nandigram by a razor-thin margin of 1,956 votes in 2021—a defeat she reversed by winning the Bhabanipur bypoll months later.
2021 Nandigram Defeat: A Wound That Still Festers
The 2021 Nandigram battle remains a pivotal chapter in Bengal’s politics. Mamata, contesting outside her traditional seat, secured 1,08,868 votes (47.64%) but fell short against Adhikari’s 1,10,764 votes (48.49%). TMC challenged the result in court, but the case remains unresolved. Mamata later reclaimed power via Bhabanipur’s bypoll, winning 85,275 votes (71.9%), dwarfing BJP’s Priyanka Tibrewal (26,428 votes).
Bhabanipur 2026: Demographic Divide and Electoral Math
1. Voter Base: Bhabanipur has 2,06,271 voters, including 43,789 Muslims (21.8%)—a bloc critical to TMC’s success.
2. 2024 Lok Sabha Clues: In the recent polls, TMC’s Mala Roy led BJP’s Debashree Chowdhury by 8,297 votes here. However, BJP won 5 of 8 municipal wards, exposing TMC’s urban vulnerability.
3. Suvendu’s Strategy: Mobilizing Hindu voters (78.2% of the electorate) through rallies and polarizing rhetoric, while targeting TMC’s alleged minority appeasement.
Can Suvendu Replicate Nandigram Magic in Mamata’s Backyard?
Adhikari’s frequent visits to Bhabanipur suggest he may contest here, despite holding a “safe” Nandigram seat. Key factors:
1. Symbolic Victory: Defeating Mamata in her bastion would cripple TMC’s morale.
2. Hindu Consolidation: With BJP leading in 5 wards, Adhikari aims to amplify Hindu unity against TMC’s Muslim-focused welfare schemes.
3. 2024 Momentum: BJP’s 8,200-vote lead in Nandigram during the Lok Sabha polls boosts confidence.
Mamata’s Counter: Bhabanipur as a Fortress
Mamata has turned Bhabanipur into an invincible fort, winning all elections since 2011. Her 2021 bypoll victory (71.9%) underscores her personal connect. However, BJP’s growing urban traction and Suvendu’s aggressive campaigning could test her grip.
The Big Question: Will Suvendu Risk It All?
While Adhikari’s Bhabanipur push is bold, risks loom:
Legal Uncertainty: The pending Nandigram verdict could destabilize his position.
Urban vs Rural Dynamics: Bhabanipur’s mixed demographics demand nuanced outreach, unlike Nandigram’s rural base.
TMC’s Welfare Clout: Schemes like Lakshmir Bhandar and minority scholarships remain popular.
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